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Thursday 25 September 2025 21: 23, UK Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League, sharing his best bets and predictions. Football loves a storyline and sometimes spotting a potential one can lead to some profitable betting decisions. This fixture has it written all over it. I'm looking straight at the Bryan Mbeumo to score price and getting involved at 2/1 with Sky Bet. It's a selection where football's emotion meets football's logic. A case of the ex. Football fans have seen it before. A player goes back to his old stomping ground, a place where he was adored, nurtured and given the stage - and what happens? He scores. The emotion of the occasion can lift a player. Add in that little extra point to prove, and suddenly you've got the perfect recipe for a goalscorer bet. Also, Mbeumo knows Brentford inside-out. He knows the weaknesses, the defensive gaps, the way his opposition full-back will defend. And since joining United, Mbeumo has looked the part too - stretching defences, taking on full-backs, and looking dangerous between the lines. He's averaging a healthy 0. 39 expected goals per 90 - a clear sign that chances are falling his way therefore his goal return should see an uptick soon enough. If you're the kind of punter like me who likes clean sheets, defensive discipline and backing under-goal lines - then this game isn't for you. This clash has got goals written all over it. Past meetings have at times descended into footballing mayhem. The last six meetings have averaged 4. 3 goals per game and who can forget last season's fixture at Stamford Bridge where Brighton's offside trap was exposed brutally by Chelsea and shots were flying in from 30 yards in a 4-2 home win. Brighton remain the most reliable team in the Premier League for goals. Only one of their last 25 games across all competitions has seen less than two goals scored with the per game total goals average at a fiery 3. 64 per game. Expect entertainment and the over 3. 5 goal line to give you a great run at 6/4 with Sky Bet.

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The lazy narrative will tell you that Liverpool have the title wrapped up already. Results say they're flying - unbeaten in five, late winners. But peel back the scoreboard and ask yourself, are this team that convincing? For me? No. This team are getting the job done, yes, but there's a lack of control in games that is leading to fine margins deciding the outcomes. That should ring a few alarm bells. Bournemouth caused them problems. Newcastle ran all over them. Burnley almost stifled them. Everton nearly nabbed them. Palace can punish them. Oliver Glasner has built a no-nonsense team that are almost perfect in terms of organisation without possession. Since they got beat 5-0 at Newcastle they are unbeaten in 17 competitive games, and they've won two trophies in that time. Across those 17 games they have just conceded nine goals and bagged nine clean sheets. That pure structural discipline can lead them to a result here on the double chance at Evens with Sky Bet. I think this game sets up very well for a Leeds win here at 2/1 with Sky Bet. Bournemouth are a fantastic team to bet on as their style never changes and clear, trustworthy patterns are emerging in that when teams allow them the ball, they struggle. In their last 14 matches where they've averaged 56 per cent or more possession, their record is W4 D3 L7. In that sample size they have been beaten by Brentford twice, Leicester and Ipswich. If Bournemouth can't force you into transitions, they become awkwardly one-paced and predictable in the final third. And this is how Leeds have been trying to play this season. They are full of physicality and built to play very direct and aggressive football with also being very secure at the back where the excellent Ethan Ampadu leads their defensive organisation. This will be a game where punters will be twitching their fingers instinctively towards the overs with visions of City with Erling Haaland in the form of his life carving through a low block like a hot knife through butter. But if you scratch beneath the surface, there's a compelling case for going the other way. The under 2. 5 goals angle looks best bet of the weekend material at 7/4 with Sky Bet. Pep Guardiola just might be building a team that dominates through defensive output - and the rock-solid axis of Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol is absolutely pivotal to that. They've started 11 games together domestically since the start of April and City won eight of those games with the only defeat being the FA Cup final. Across those 11 games they only conceded five goals, keeping seven clean sheets. And now if you add Gianluigi Donnarumma and Rodri into that defensive unit, you've got yourself a really domineering and formidable defensive axis, one that could be the backbone of a team that challenges for major honours once again. Also, of the 50 Premier League games played this season, 25 have fallen under the 2. 5 goals line and the overall goals per game average sits at 2. 48. That will eventually rise but it's just another bit of evidence to throw in the mix for an unders bet. Hello, old friend. Nice to see you again. Ange-ball was back and dancing to the tune of some very happy Forest fans in the away end at Real Betis. Yes, Forest didn't get maximum points but boy were they pulsating for most of that game. Ange Postecoglou has flicked the tactical switch as the new boss and has painted his footballing identity all over these Forest players already which is based around: attack first, ask questions later. You could see the blueprint Postecoglou built at Celtic and Spurs - overloads in wide areas, full-backs tucking in to build and midfielders darting between lines, something Elliot Anderson absolutely thrived at. It was fun to watch. And we can declare with confidence that they're going to create chances. Lots of them. And concede lots of chances too. This new Forest style is going to blow the lid off their goal lines. Forget the side that grinded out 1-0s at home - this is now a team actively embracing risk and one who will become an over 2. 5 money-spinner while the prices remain behind the curve. It's Evens here and where Postecoglou is involved, over 2. 5 lines simply must be your punting friend. Vitor Pereira needs to change something. Dating back to last season, Wolves have no win in nine games, taking just one point from the last 27 available. However, he might just have stumbled upon the system that could lead to a change in fortunes. The 4-4-2 he played in the midweek win over Everton made Wolves more compact and - crucially - seemed to help get support into their key striker Jorgen Strand Larsen. This Wolves side might still be winless but playing Spurs, weirdly, brings out their best. They have amassed nine Premier League wins vs Spurs, the club's joint-most against any opponent and have won four of the last five meetings. Maybe, the old-school 4-4-2 could be the key to spark Wolves into life against their favourite opponent? They could be worth a swing at 4/1 on the draw no bet with Sky Bet. Sander Berge to be carded at 3/1 with Sky Bet is simply too big for a player who's being thrust into the midfield furnace against one of the most skilled card-drawing teams in the Premier League. Aston Villa's engine room of Morgan Rogers and John Mc Ginn - with the occasional Ollie Watkins thrown in from further forward - isn't just technically sharp, it's a card magnet's dream. They rotate positions, carry the ball with purpose and are constantly engaging the opposition. In Villa's last 14 Premier League games an opposition centre-midfielder has been carded in 12 of those matches with 16 carded in total. Fulham have history of cards in this fixture too, having been shown 20 yellows in the past five meetings, with Berge one of those players cautioned last time. This is the last fixture Mikel Arteta needs right now. A trip that's rapidly becoming one of the most emotionally charged and physically demanding fixtures in the Premier League calendar and one where Arsenal have history of succumbing to the atmosphere. Arsenal are favourites with the markets here at Evens with Sky Bet. But should they be? I'm not having it. Not when Newcastle are in this kind of mood at home as the underdog. There's something about Newcastle that rattles Arteta's Arsenal. The Gunners have lost four of their last five games in all competitions at St James' Park, including both visits last season. They have failed to score in all four defeats. Arteta teams love rhythm and structure and the Newcastle midfield don't give you that. They break your passing lanes, slow down your build-up and make it a scrap. They don't just play the occasion, they use it as a weapon. And in front of the Geordie faithful, Newcastle look a savvy bet on the draw no bet market at 6/4 with Sky Bet. Since swapping the somewhat clockwork football of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City for the freedom given to him at Everton, Jack Grealish looks like Jack Grealish again. His take-ons per 90 has rocketed from 3. 7 per game at City from the past two seasons to 9. 1 per 90 in the Everton blue. Grealish's time at City wasn't wasted of course, he won trophies, created history and matured. But he wasn't the maverick that made him box office. Well, the maverick inside is being unleashed by David Moyes and Grealish is the most creative player in the Premier League as a result. Grealish has four assists, creating 2. 9 chances per 90 from open play - no player to have played 200 minutes or more has a higher per-90 figure from that metric. He is 11/4 with Sky Bet to bag another assist in what should be a routine home win. Super 6 are starting the season by guaranteeing a £1, 000, 000 winner! Play for free.

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